Summer 2025 Energy Outlook: What businesses need to know

As we move through summer 2025, global energy markets are feeling the pressure from political tensions, shifting trade policies and unpredictable weather. For UK businesses, staying ahead of these developments is key to managing risk and planning with confidence.

From LNG supply concerns to carbon pricing updates, here’s a summary of the main trends shaping the energy landscape and how they could affect your strategy heading into winter. 

Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk
Gas prices rose by 20 per cent in just a few days following renewed conflict in the Middle East. Although a ceasefire is in place, the risk of disruption to key shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, remains high.

Ukraine is also facing domestic gas production issues following Russian attacks. This has increased the country’s reliance on European imports, adding further pressure to the region’s supply and storage targets.

 Trade and tariff decisions are creating uncertainty

Recent trade developments from the US have unsettled markets. While agreements with the EU have helped ease some concerns, other proposed tariffs could affect countries that trade with Russia.

If they go ahead, major importers such as India and China may find it difficult to replace lost supply. This could reduce global energy demand and temporarily bring prices down.

LNG remains tight, but storage is improving

Despite tight LNG supply, European imports are expected to increase by 25 per cent this year. That is being driven by favourable market conditions and increased demand.

Storage levels are also heading in the right direction. Injection rates are on track to reach 83 per cent by the 1st November, but supply remains vulnerable to unexpected outages or further cargo diversions to Asia.

Weather continues to influence markets

Long spells of hot weather are increasing gas demand for cooling. They are also affecting nuclear output in some areas where river temperatures are rising.

Looking further ahead, hurricane season could disrupt LNG exports from the US. There is also some early suggestion of a colder-than-average winter, but it is too early to confirm. Trident will provide further analysis in its autumn update.

Energy policy and carbon pricing in the spotlight

The UK has confirmed it will stick with a single national energy price under the REMA programme. This gives businesses a little more certainty for forward planning, with further details due later this year.

Carbon prices are also climbing, helped by the UK–EU Emissions Trading Scheme link and tighter allowance supply. Reductions from the Market Stability Reserve and cuts in free aviation allowances are already having an impact, with more investors now taking notice.

What should businesses be thinking about now?

With so many variables in play, energy markets are likely to remain volatile throughout the rest of summer and into winter. If you are on a flexible contract, increasing coverage now could help protect against further price spikes. And if you are renewing in October 2025 or April 2026, starting the process early will help you stay ahead of the curve.

 Explore the full update

This article is based on insight from Trident’s full Summer 2025 Energy Market Update.
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