New figures show improvement in economy

By Tim Aldred

16 Jan 2023

Malcolm Buchanan Natwest

The UK appears as though it may avoid recession while business activity in the North West stabilised in December, according to new data.

GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in October and again by 0.1 per cent in November, despite widespread predictions that the economy would contract.

Jonathan Moyes, head of investment research at Wealth Club, said: "Many will be taken by surprise by this announcement. We have seen retailers report stronger than expected earnings reports for Q4 over the past week, and it appears a stronger than expected consumer services and services more broadly have helped the UK economy defy gloomy expectations.

"It may be too soon to mark the beginning of a turn in sentiment for the UK, but a quiet consensus appears to be forming. Energy prices are falling sharply, China is reopening and interest rate expectations have eased significantly.”

However, David Bharier, head of research at the BCC, sounded a more cautious note. He said: "While month-on-month GDP grew by 0.1 per cent, this is a volatile measure. The three-month average, standing at –0.3 per cent,  sends a clearer signal of the current trajectory of the economy. Unprecedented energy costs, new trade barriers with the EU, and lasting damage caused by Covid lockdowns have created the hardest trading conditions for small businesses in recent history.

“Our latest Quarterly Economic Forecast expects five consecutive quarters of recession lasting until the end of 2023, and our most recent business survey points to significant falls in longer-term business confidence. To get back to growth in the long-term, firms will need to see the removal of trade barriers, particularly with the EU, investment in public infrastructure, and measures to improve their access to appropriately skilled staff.”

Meanwhile, in the North West, the private sector economy ended 2022 on a more stable footing, with business activity holding steady in December after three straight months of contraction, according to the latest Regional PMI data from NatWest.

The headline North West PMI Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – registered in line with the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction in December. It was up from 48.5 in November and followed three consecutive sub-50 readings. 

Rising business costs remained a feature of the survey data in December. Panel members commented on higher prices paid for food and energy, as well as citing staff pay demands and the influence of exchange rate factors. The rate of cost inflation remained elevated by historical standards. 

Malcolm Buchanan, chair of NatWest North Regional Board, said: "In the context of three straight months of contraction prior to December, a PMI reading of 50.0, signalling a stabilisation in business activity, is a relatively positive result and shows the region ended the year on a firmer footing.

"On the employment front, the North West went against the broader UK trend and registered a further – albeit modest – rise in employment. Encouragement could also be gleaned from the survey's measures of inflationary pressures, which fell to their lowest since February 2021 and signalled slower price increases than in any other region. Still, despite sentiment recovering further from October's recent low, local firms remain only cautiously optimistic about the outlook amid ongoing concerns about a broad economy slowdown and a squeeze on customer budgets."  

Enjoyed this? Read more from Tim Aldred

Latest news

1

UK's pioneering Combat Air Flying Demonstrator is revealed Flying Combat Air Demonstrator

UK's pioneering Combat Air Flying Demonstrator is revealed

17 Jul 2025

2

A fresh brew for The Printed Cup Company The Printed Cup Company

A fresh brew for The Printed Cup Company

17 Jul 2025

3

Joe Diston from Beever and Struthers appointed to new Global IFRS leader for HLB International Joe Diston

Joe Diston from Beever and Struthers appointed to new Global IFRS leader for HLB International

17 Jul 2025

4

Louise Leyland promoted to director role at PWA Planning Louise Leyland And Paul Walton

Louise Leyland promoted to director role at PWA Planning

16 Jul 2025

5

Muller UK and Ireland to invest an extra £45m into Skelmersdale site The Skelmersdale Muller site

Muller UK and Ireland to invest an extra £45m into Skelmersdale site

16 Jul 2025

Background image for hub sign up block

LBV Hub

Leverage Lancashire Business View platforms

Post your news
Post your events
Post your offers
Build your network
Improve your SEO
Gain coverage in the magazine
Sign-up
Events
Lancashire Built Environment Conference 2025
BEC 315 X 315 Px
Networking
25 Sep 2025

Lancashire Built Environment Conference 2025

Blackpool Football Club, Blackpool, FY1 6HX

08:30 - 13:00

CMI Level 5 Management and Leadership Course
UCLanAerialCampus.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Seminars
21 Feb 2025 - 21 Feb 2026

CMI Level 5 Management and Leadership Course

Preston Campus, Preston , PR1 2HE

09:00 - 17:00

CMI Level 5 Project Management Course
UCLanAerialCampus.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Seminars
21 Feb 2025 - 21 Feb 2026

CMI Level 5 Project Management Course

Preston Campus, Preston, PR1 2HE

08:00 - 17:00

Preston Tech Connection: Web3 is Dead. Or is It?
July Longer Banner.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Networking
29 Jul 2025 - 29 Jul 2025

Preston Tech Connection: Web3 is Dead. Or is It?

Society1, Coworking Space, Preston, PR1 3LT

18:00 - 19:30

Preston Freelancer Meet-Up: July
Longer July Banner.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Networking
31 Jul 2025 - 31 Jul 2025

Preston Freelancer Meet-Up: July

Society1, Coworking Space, Preston, PR1 3LT

10:00 - 11:30

Advantage: AI – A Workshop for Business Leaders – August 14th
Navy--Event Tile.png.png
LBV Hub Seminars
14 Aug 2025 - 14 Aug 2025

Advantage: AI – A Workshop for Business Leaders – August 14th

Door4 Office, Burnley Wharf, Burnley, BB11 1JG

09:00 - 12:00

The Business Network Central & East Lancashire
LBV Header (24).png.png
LBV Hub Networking
21 Aug 2025 - 21 Aug 2025

The Business Network Central & East Lancashire

Mytton Fold, Langho, BB6 8AB

11:30 - 14:15

Morecambe Bay Walk
Walk.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Awards
30 Aug 2025 - 30 Aug 2025

Morecambe Bay Walk

Arnside, CARNFORTH, LA5

09:30 - 14:00

Cumbria Business Expo 2025
https---cdn.evbuc.com-images-880461633-4862066883-1-original.20241022-110415.jpeg.jpg
LBV Hub Exhibitions
19 Sep 2025 - 19 Sep 2025

Cumbria Business Expo 2025

Carlisle Racecourse, Carlisle, CA2 4TS

09:00 - 15:00

Help to grow management course
Help to grow - barriers to growth.png.png
LBV Hub Seminars
26 Sep 2025 - 16 Dec 2025

Help to grow management course

Preston Campus , Preston , PR1 2HE

09:00 - 15:00

North West Business Expo 2025
https---cdn.evbuc.com-images-880456273-4862066883-1-original.20241022-105445.jpeg.jpg
LBV Hub Exhibitions
24 Oct 2025 - 24 Oct 2025

North West Business Expo 2025

Bolton Stadium Hotel, Bolton, BL6 6SF

09:00 - 15:00

Lancashire Business Day 2025
241122lbvlancashiredaylhp0647web
Networking
27 Nov 2025

Lancashire Business Day 2025

Burnley FC , Burnley, BB10 4BX

12:00 - 17:00

Advertise with us

Reaching 50,000 members, our print, digital and event platforms offer a fantastic way to raise your business profile and help you grow.

Find out more LBV122 Online Graphic
Subscribe now

Weekly news bulletin