Beware stock market complacency

By Lancashire Business View

20 Mar 2018

neil-worsley-hedley-co-1000x500.jpg
By Neil Worsley, investment strategist, Hedley & Co.

The recent stock market pull-back should be seen for what it was, a healthy correction in a complacent stock market.

Investor nerves were set on edge as the US 10 year bond approached a 3% yield as alarm bells began to ring that inflation may not be dead after all and interest rates in the United States may therefore, have to rise sooner and higher than was first thought.

This spooked the financial markets where falls were compounded by the liquidation of some volatility funds, increasing the volatility index which led to further asset sales.

While no one can ever be certain that these short term fluctuations are now over, there are a number of factors which are still supportive, particularly of the stock market.

In the United States, where the stock market is usually a guide for other world markets, the market valuation is certainly not especially cheap compared to historic averages.

However, the recent tax changes there will certainly give a fillip to the economy and also reduce the tax element which many companies pay, giving a short term boost to profitability and earnings.

In addition, while February saw investors selling shares, companies spent $113bn buying back shares, the most since April 2015, a trend which is likely to continue. This move signals that companies will be ready buyers in any market slide.

On the economic front, there is healthy economic growth in most parts of the world, with employment levels improving and productivity growth rising.

While inflation has been subdued for much of the past 10 years, this is likely to be the main focus of attention over the coming months and years.

Provided that this remains contained then stock markets should continue to prosper, albeit with perhaps a degree of volatility which investors have not been accustomed to for some time, although neither the US equity market nor bonds would be our favoured home for investment. For regulatory disclosures, please visit www.hedleyandco.co.uk/publications and click on Hedley Regulatory Disclosures.

Latest news

1

Fulfilmentcrowd makes double senior hires Katie Shepherd L And Rachel Miller R

Fulfilmentcrowd makes double senior hires

19 Apr 2024

2

Forbes makes Manchester move Forbes Manchester

Forbes makes Manchester move

15 Apr 2024

3

Blackpool approves plans for pair of apartment complexes New South Promenade Apartments Visuals

Blackpool approves plans for pair of apartment complexes

12 Apr 2024

4

Distinguished engineer takes senior role at Lancaster University Rebecca Lingwood

Distinguished engineer takes senior role at Lancaster University

11 Apr 2024

5

International building supplies firm to open new plant in Preston New Kerakoll Group Premises Visuals

International building supplies firm to open new plant in Preston

11 Apr 2024

Hwc 2024 Email Signature 980x120
Background image for hub sign up block

LBV Hub

Reach 50,000 members of the Lancashire business community

Post your news
Post your events
Post your offers
Company profile
Social reach
Magazine coverage
Sign-up
Events
Health and Wellbeing Conference 2024
Hwc 2024 Social Media 1200px 1
Networking
23 Apr 2024

Health and Wellbeing Conference 2024

Crow Wood Hotel, Burnley , BB12 0RT

08:30 - 13:00

Help to Grow Management Course
HTG2.png.png
LBV Hub Seminars
15 Apr 2024 - 17 Jul 2024

Help to Grow Management Course

Preston Campus , Preston , PR1 2HE

09:30 - 14:00

Business Networking in Preston- BNI Brunch
EVENT LISTING SIZING Brunch .png.png
LBV Hub Networking
19 Apr 2024

Business Networking in Preston- BNI Brunch

Samlesbury Preston Hotel, Preston New Road, Preston, PR5 0UL

09:30 - 11:00

The Pro Club
Untitled design (6).png.png
LBV Hub Networking
19 Apr 2024

The Pro Club

Fraser House, Lancaster, LA1 4XQ

09:30 - 12:30

Business Networking in Blackburn - BNI Infinity
EVENT LISTING BNI Infinity.png.png
LBV Hub Networking
19 Apr 2024

Business Networking in Blackburn - BNI Infinity

Hampton by Hilton, 2 Frontier Ave, Blackburn, BB1 3AL

06:30 - 08:30

St Catherine’s Corporate Skydive
Corporate SkyDive.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Fundraisers
21 Apr 2024

St Catherine’s Corporate Skydive

Black Knights Parachute Centre, Lancaster, LA2 0YD

12:00 - 16:30

HR Complete Training Programme: Equality and Diversity
Picture1.png.png
LBV Hub Webinar
23 Apr 2024

HR Complete Training Programme: Equality and Diversity

Online (Zoom)

09:30 - 11:00

Business Networking in Chorley - BNI Endeavour
EVENT LISTING SIZING Endeavour.png.png
LBV Hub Networking
23 Apr 2024

Business Networking in Chorley - BNI Endeavour

Oak Royal, Bury Lane, Chorley, PR6 8SW

06:30 - 08:30

Emergency First Aid at Work
Chamber Logo1.png.png
LBV Hub Seminars
23 Apr 2024

Emergency First Aid at Work

FGH Training, 3rd Floor, Storey House, White Cross Business Park, Lancaster, LA1 4XQ

09:00 - 16:00

Business Networking in Blackburn - BNI Vista
EVENT LISTING SIZING Vista.png.png
LBV Hub Networking
23 Apr 2024

Business Networking in Blackburn - BNI Vista

Hampton by Hilton, 2 Frontier Ave, Blackburn, BB1 3AL

06:45 - 08:30

Your Business Bootcamp Bitesize: "Roger That… The Importance of Asking Twice"
CBP-logo LBV.png.png
LBV Hub Webinar
24 Apr 2024 - 24 Apr 2024

Your Business Bootcamp Bitesize: "Roger That… The Importance of Asking Twice"

Online, Online, Online

08:00 - 09:30

Business Networking in Accrington - BNI Zeus
EVENT LISTING SIZING Zeus.png.png
LBV Hub Networking
24 Apr 2024

Business Networking in Accrington - BNI Zeus

The Mill House, Corn Mill Yard, Accrington, BB5 5HX

06:45 - 08:30

Advertise with us

Reaching 50,000 members, our print, digital and event platforms offer a fantastic way to raise your business profile and help you grow.

Find out more Lbv115 Online Graphic
Subscribe now

Weekly news bulletin