Beware stock market complacency

By Lancashire Business View

20 Mar 2018

neil-worsley-hedley-co-1000x500.jpg
By Neil Worsley, investment strategist, Hedley & Co.

The recent stock market pull-back should be seen for what it was, a healthy correction in a complacent stock market.

Investor nerves were set on edge as the US 10 year bond approached a 3% yield as alarm bells began to ring that inflation may not be dead after all and interest rates in the United States may therefore, have to rise sooner and higher than was first thought.

This spooked the financial markets where falls were compounded by the liquidation of some volatility funds, increasing the volatility index which led to further asset sales.

While no one can ever be certain that these short term fluctuations are now over, there are a number of factors which are still supportive, particularly of the stock market.

In the United States, where the stock market is usually a guide for other world markets, the market valuation is certainly not especially cheap compared to historic averages.

However, the recent tax changes there will certainly give a fillip to the economy and also reduce the tax element which many companies pay, giving a short term boost to profitability and earnings.

In addition, while February saw investors selling shares, companies spent $113bn buying back shares, the most since April 2015, a trend which is likely to continue. This move signals that companies will be ready buyers in any market slide.

On the economic front, there is healthy economic growth in most parts of the world, with employment levels improving and productivity growth rising.

While inflation has been subdued for much of the past 10 years, this is likely to be the main focus of attention over the coming months and years.

Provided that this remains contained then stock markets should continue to prosper, albeit with perhaps a degree of volatility which investors have not been accustomed to for some time, although neither the US equity market nor bonds would be our favoured home for investment. For regulatory disclosures, please visit www.hedleyandco.co.uk/publications and click on Hedley Regulatory Disclosures.

Latest news

1

Management buyout at Suresite Group Steve Holden

Management buyout at Suresite Group

17 Oct 2025

2

Meet the influencers who have generated £2m sales for one company Helen and Richard Chalu new

Meet the influencers who have generated £2m sales for one company

16 Oct 2025

3

WHN strengthens position in prestigious legal guide Daniel Long

WHN strengthens position in prestigious legal guide

16 Oct 2025

4

Warden appoints new commercial manager to strengthen project delivery and growth Peter Heskine

Warden appoints new commercial manager to strengthen project delivery and growth

16 Oct 2025

5

Stockley's finds its sweet spot Stockley's front view

Stockley's finds its sweet spot

15 Oct 2025

Background image for hub sign up block

LBV Hub

Leverage Lancashire Business View platforms

Post your news
Post your events
Post your offers
Build your network
Improve your SEO
Gain coverage in the magazine
Sign-up
Events
CMI Level 5 Management and Leadership Course
UCLanAerialCampus.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Seminars
21 Feb 2025 - 21 Feb 2026

CMI Level 5 Management and Leadership Course

Preston Campus, Preston , PR1 2HE

09:00 - 17:00

CMI Level 5 Project Management Course
UCLanAerialCampus.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Seminars
21 Feb 2025 - 21 Feb 2026

CMI Level 5 Project Management Course

Preston Campus, Preston, PR1 2HE

08:00 - 17:00

Help to grow management course
Help to grow - barriers to growth.png.png
LBV Hub Seminars
26 Sep 2025 - 16 Dec 2025

Help to grow management course

Preston Campus , Preston , PR1 2HE

09:00 - 15:00

Women scaling up Blackpool Fylde and Wyre
LBV Hub Seminars
22 Oct 2025 - 09 Jan 2026

Women scaling up Blackpool Fylde and Wyre

The Small Business Academy, Blackpool, FY4 5JX

09:30 - 15:30

HR Essentials for pubs, bars and licensed venues
EventBrite NORi - 22nd Oct Webinar.png.png
LBV Hub Webinar
22 Oct 2025 - 22 Oct 2025

HR Essentials for pubs, bars and licensed venues

Online - Teams, Leyland, PR253XH

13:30 - 15:00

RISE - Lancashire's unique leadership programme for women
thumbnail_Emma Weston Illustration WENDY BOWERS RISE Illustrstion.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Seminars
22 Oct 2025 - 18 Mar 2026

RISE - Lancashire's unique leadership programme for women

East Lancashire Chamber of Commerce, Clayton le Moors, BB5 5JR

09:30 - 15:30

Chamber Business Lunch – October
LBV Hub Networking
24 Oct 2025 - 24 Sep 2025

Chamber Business Lunch – October

Lancaster Golf Club, Lancaster, LA2 0AJ

11:00 - 13:30

North West Business Expo 2025
https---cdn.evbuc.com-images-880456273-4862066883-1-original.20241022-105445.jpeg.jpg
LBV Hub Exhibitions
24 Oct 2025 - 24 Oct 2025

North West Business Expo 2025

Bolton Stadium Hotel, Bolton, BL6 6SF

09:00 - 15:00

Lancaster District Business Support Expo
Lancs-cham-logo.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Networking
29 Oct 2025 - 29 Oct 2025

Lancaster District Business Support Expo

The Platform, Morecambe, LA4 4DB

10:00 - 15:00

Chamber Breakfast Networking – November
Lancs-cham-logo.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Networking
06 Nov 2025 - 06 Nov 2025

Chamber Breakfast Networking – November

Porsche Centre South Lakes, Carnforth, LA6 1FW

08:30 - 10:30

Lancashire Police business update with The Police and Crime Commissioner
Lancs-cham-logo.jpg.jpg
LBV Hub Roundtables
10 Nov 2025 - 10 Nov 2025

Lancashire Police business update with The Police and Crime Commissioner

Lancaster Castle, Lancaster, LA1 1YN

14:00 - 16:00

Beyond the Brand: Building trust through values and integrity
1.png.png
LBV Hub Networking
11 Nov 2025 - 11 Nov 2025

Beyond the Brand: Building trust through values and integrity

Society1, Coworking Space, Preston, PR1 3LT

18:00 - 20:00

Advertise with us

Reaching 50,000 members, our print, digital and event platforms offer a fantastic way to raise your business profile and help you grow.

Find out more LBV124 Online Graphic
Subscribe now

Weekly news bulletin